Every second Swede will drive an electric car by 2030

Today, electric cars make up less than 5 percent of the Swedish car fleet. But the transition to electric cars will happen quickly – at least if car owners themselves are to be believed.

By 2030, nearly every second car owner (45%) says they will drive an electric car, according to our survey conducted in collaboration with Kantar Sifo.

– It would be an important milestone in reducing emissions and meeting climate goals. But there are of course uncertainties in the forecast. The car market is largely driven by economic developments and decisions made by politicians. Things can change quickly, says Daniel Odsberg, Sales Manager Kvdbil .

Price a problem

Daniel Odsberg sees the high price of electric cars as the biggest obstacle. Last fall, the bonus of 50-70,000 kronor was abolished, and continued high inflation and skyrocketing interest rates have made the calculation even tougher for potential electric car buyers. According to figures from the industry organization Mobility Sweden, sales to private individuals have plummeted.

– Right now, the electric car is a no-go for many, and that doesn't surprise me at all. In survey after survey, we have seen that price and economy are the most important factors in choosing a car. To reverse the negative trend and take advantage of the great interest that still exists in switching to an electric car, politics needs to act quickly and in a targeted manner. By that I don't mean that you necessarily need to reintroduce the bonus, but you need to create an economically favorable environment that makes electric cars an affordable and safe investment for more people, says Odsberg.

Slowest in northern Sweden

Men, younger and middle-aged people are most willing to switch to electric cars. Just under half of men say they will drive an electric car by 2030, compared to 39 percent of women. In the 18-29 and 30-49 age groups, it is 52 and 53 percent respectively, compared to 39 percent among 50-64 year olds and as low as 30 percent in the 65-79 age group.

But there are also big differences depending on where in the country you live. Of the big cities, Gothenburg is leading the way, where it is expected that there will even be more electric cars than petrol and diesel cars. With Gothenburg as the driving force, Western Sweden (49%) is also at the top when looking at the whole country, followed by Southern Sweden with Skåne and Blekinge (47%). The transition is expected to be slowest in Västernorrland and Jämtland (25%) and in Västerbotten and Norrbotten (32%).

– There must be incentives to opt out of fossil fuels, but there must also be conditions. In large parts of the country, the charging infrastructure is still lagging behind and this means that the transition is slower. Cold and long distances are also something that discourages many consumers from buying an electric car, not least in northern Sweden, says Daniel Odsberg, Sales Manager Kvdbil .

For those who experience cold and range as a problem, a plug-in hybrid could be an alternative, says Daniel Odsberg. Plug-in hybrids can be considered a better alternative than regular fossil-fueled cars because they can run on electricity for shorter distances.

“By choosing a plug-in hybrid, you can help reduce the negative environmental effects while gaining flexibility and security that enables driving even in adverse conditions. A plug-in hybrid can also be a perfect intermediate step towards fully embracing electric technology,” he says.

About the survey
The survey was conducted in Kantar Sifo's web panel during the period 12–16 January 2023. A total of 1020 people were interviewed, all of whom have access to a car. The web panel is nationally representative and recruited based on random selection. There is no self-recruitment in Kantar Sifo's web panel.